Wealth Gaps to National Challenges 🍁

A conversation with Scott Bessent highlighted today's economic divide: lower-income consumers struggle with inflation and minimal savings, while wealthy consumers thrive as their assets appreciate. Housing prices, the S&P 500, and gold have risen significantly (20-40%), benefiting those already in the market. Since affluent consumers drive most spending, their continued prosperity sustains overall consumption despite broader economic challenges. This growing wealth gap raises critical questions about long-term market stability and policy implications.

He also discusses Japan and China.

Despite Chinese stimulus, Scott is taking a pass. He’d rather play through safer jurisdictions levered to the China theme, he is worried about property rights in China.

Bull market in Family Offices. The Family Office market is only expected to grow through 2030.

Most family businesses plan on passing their business onto the next generation.

Lee Kuan Yew on the American culture.

Tax revenue as a share of national income; unfortunate to see governments only getting bigger.

The aging population crisis drives government fiscal policy, as nations struggle to fund growing retirement and healthcare obligations.

US Government consumptions has been a large drive of GDP growth in recent quarters.

Institutional investors took a step back from single family homes (SFH) after rates rose. So much for Blackstone owning every SFH in America.

Time for a breather; S&P 500 ended October down! This is only the second down month since November 2023.

Private Equity is turning to public markets for their next targets.

Canada sells oil, so we can afford nice things.

Government sector productivity in Canada has been a drag.

Canada's projected population decline over the next two years could significantly impact economic growth, given the country's heavy reliance on immigration. If this forecast materializes, it may trigger rent decreases and further monetary easing, potentially weakening the Canadian dollar. Though the population decline remains uncertain, its implications for growth and policy are substantial.

Turns out the Yankees, $3 million per win salary hit, wasn’t enough to win the World Series.