Daily Charts

Energy Outlook

Apollo on energy prices, they think prices are going higher

Crude has gone parabolic has I’ve previous shown

US crude production never recovered from pre pandemic levels

Crude has had relatively modest gains compared to nat gas and coal

The screaming European nat gas prices are because they are heavily reliant on Russian gas…

… And this is flowing through to energy prices in Europe

Peter Zeihan had some further comments on the Russian energy situation. Infrastructure isn’t in place to offload the crude/nat gas to China and Western companies have left the region, they were responsible for operating some of the oil fields. Russia may have to permanently shut in production. Thinks crude could go to $200 a barrel.

March CPI under various oil price scenarios

Oil shocks have historically contributed to recession. More and more household income will be consumed at the pumps, heating homes and will flow through into goods prices.

Interestingly, the Loonie has decoupled from energy prices