Debt & Disruption

Skiing in Whistler next week, so taking a short break from the notes. Back on the 16th.

I thought this would ultimately be the reason the U.S. would avoid invading Iran. Trump’s approval heading into the midterms will likely depend heavily on the cost of living, and now gas prices are rising. (@biancoresearch)

These next few charts make a compelling case for gold over bonds. U.S. deficits remain out of control, coming in at 5.8% of GDP in 2025. (BofA)

The Congressional Budget Office expects deficits to continue widening in the years ahead. (BofA)

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to monetize U.S. debt. (BofA)

Unsurprisingly, in the world described above, bonds have delivered subpar returns. (BofA)

Households are also feeling the squeeze. The rise of populism across many countries reflects that pressure, with incumbents steadily losing voting share. (BofA)

How quickly will military budgets grow in a world defined by increasing geopolitical conflict? (BofA)

The death of the dollar? Expectations of its demise still look largely exaggerated. (BofA)

Could the U.S. economy be reaccelerating? Job switcher wage growth has recently inflected higher. (Apollo)

Anthropic believes it is only beginning to disrupt its total addressable market.(@AndrewCurran_)

And what does this say about society? Adults are getting started later. (a16z)