Disruptions Near

Michael Every at Rabobank thinks things will escalate further before they get better, despite the all clear being signaled by markets. (Full piece)

Plenty of stories from Asia surrounding fuel rationing. (BCA)

Supply chains are beginning to get disrupted. If there is no resolution soon, economic damage will follow.

And the reminder, it isn’t only about oil.

Even when the conflict ends, below is a list of damaged energy infrastructure. Not all prices will normalize. (@CRUDEOIL231)

Hard to believe the S&P 500 is roughly flat on the year and higher than pre war levels despite $100 oil and a major conflict. But maybe the market is simply forward looking.

Man Group looked at S&P 500 performance following wars. Markets tend to move higher more often than not. (Man Paper)

Gold tends to be one of the biggest winners. Often more so than equities.

Yields also tend to rise.

The dollar typically strengthens as well.

Global EPS revisions are bucking the seasonal trend and rising instead of drifting lower. (@MikeZaccardi)

Hedge fund investors have steadily increased exposure to industrials.

While ditching software exposure.