The AVERAGE Consumer

Stimmies 2.0… The average tax refund is expected to be almost $1000 higher than last year because of the One Big Beautiful Bill. (@MikeZaccardi)

From a top down perspective, Goldman’s consumer dashboard doesn’t point to major cause for concern. Confidence is in the dumps and income growth is slowing but most other segments look healthy. (@MikeZaccardi)

Zooming in on same store retail sales, YoY growth looks healthy with no signs of a slowdown. (Apollo)

The aggregate consumption and wealth data doesn’t represent the experience of the average household. The top 20% controls the majority of assets, enjoying the wealth effect as the S&P 500 hovers around all time highs and the Nasdaq just completed it’s 3rd consecutive year of +20% returns. However, the majority of Americans don’t own any equities. (FT)

The top 10% of consumers are propping up the majority of consumer spending. (FT)

Unemployment is ticking up and hourly earnings growth is declining. I don’t think this means a recession but it leads to discontent and unrest as people struggle to get by. (wsj)

Large US deficits, typically seen during global crises, are now the norm, which may explain why a recession hasn't occurred and might not be imminent. (@ISABELNET_SA)

The One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to propel the economy further in the first half of next year. (GS)

Simultaneously, global debt is expected to hit $350T next year. (@ISABELNET_SA)

Historically, the 3rd year of the Bitcoin cycle brought treasures to the speculators but the 4 year cycle was bucked in 2025, so what is next? Time for catch-up or collapse? (Bitwise)

Stablecoins have been crypto’s killer use case, growing to almost $300B (Bitwise)

Nvidia is now more volatile than Bitcoin. (Bitwise)

Prominent tech figures predict the next big thing for 2026. Worth a read.